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Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ($${\textsc {TransMED}}$$$TRANS\mathrm{MED}$) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of$${\textsc {TransMED}}$$$TRANS\mathrm{MED}$’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis.$${\textsc {TransMED}}$$$TRANS\mathrm{MED}$’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

 

Graph mining is an important data analysis methodology, but struggles as the input graph size increases. The scalability and usability challenges posed by such large graphs make it imperative to sample the input graph and reduce its size. The critical challenge in sampling is to identify the appropriate algorithm to insure the resulting analysis does not suffer heavily from the data reduction. Predicting the expected performance degradation for a given graph and sampling algorithm is also useful. In this paper, we present different sampling approaches for graph mining applications such as Frequent Subgrpah Mining (FSM), and Community Detection (CD). We explore graph metrics such as PageRank, Triangles, and Diversity to sample a graph and conclude that for heterogeneous graphs Triangles and Diversity perform better than degree based metrics. We also present two new sampling variations for targeted graph mining applications. We present empirical results to show that knowledge of the target application, along with input graph properties can be used to select the best sampling algorithm. We also conclude that performance degradation is an abrupt, rather than gradual phenomena, as the sample size decreases. We present the empirical results to show that the performance degradation follows a logistic function.